Speaker
Description
Phenological events in plants are shifting worldwide due to climate change. By studying long-term shifts of phenological events in plants using historical data records, scientists gain a deeper understanding of potential further changes. However, conducting such Time-for-Time Substitutions (TFTS) remains sparse due to limited availability of long-term data. An alternative method is the Space-for-Time substitution (SFTS), in which the temporal gradient is reflected by a spatial gradient.
For this study, we used historical phenological records of 17 herbaceous species from botanical gardens in Vienna covering a period of 150 years and data from 11 botanical gardens covering a large spatial gradient to test the space-time equivalence. This is necessary to ensure that SFTS are applied reliably. We fitted a linear-mixed effect model to test for differences between the two approaches while analysing the associations between annual flowering onset dates and temperature. Additionally, we used a meta-analytical approach to examine species-specific suitability of SFTS in regard of the species' temporal niches.
We showed that the space-time equivalence is fulfilled for the present species and spatial gradient and found that for both approaches, flowering was advanced by 7 days when the temperature increased by 1°C. On the species level, however, we found that the known connection that early-flowering species are more temperature-sensitive cannot be confirmed for the SFTS dataset. Furthermore, the space-time equivalence is better fulfilled for early-flowering species than for late-flowering ones.
This study contributes significantly to phenological research, as it demonstrated that SFTS can be generally applied for herbaceous species monitored in botanical gardens. However, this method should always be used with caution for species-specific questions. In addition, it still remains unclear to what extent the patterns found can be confirmed in less-controlled habitats.
| Status Group | Postdoctoral Researcher |
|---|---|
| Poster Presentation Option | Yes, I’m willing to present as a poster. |
