Speaker
Description
The increasing magnitude and frequency of climate extremes pose major threats to farm productivity and food security. Adaptation trends, however, show gaps, remain incremental (e.g., irrigation) and insufficiently transformative (e.g., agroforestry). These trends could be explained by farmers’ risk behavior or low attitudes to changes in the production system. While past studies assume decision-making from description, less is known about how perceived climate extremes shape adaptation behavior through experience.
In this study, we rely on instance-based learning theory, which suggests the relevance of past events in dynamic decision-making situations. Individuals gather experiences with situations over time, including feedback from the environment on decisions made in these situations. Such instances are then used to judge new situations and hypothesized to influence decision-making. Our aim is to examine the extent to which past experiences (own or in the social environment) from climate extremes influence farmers’ adaptation behavior. Using an experimental approach, we examine how instances relate to adaptation decisions for a hypothetical but representative farm. We impose a split-treatment design: the treatment group receives a new instance by showing a drought event with consequences on farm (field fire, video). The control group is shown a situation without fire. Respondents could then opt between no adaptations for the hypothetical farm or consider two key choices: timing (acting now or later) and investment in a water storage (no change in the production system) or converting 14% of the farms’ land to agroforestry (change in the system).
While the experiment with farmers is currently running (online), we investigate results from an experiment with 176 agricultural students from a German university. About 54% of the sample is experienced with farming decisions and our sample thus represents a group of well-educated future farm decision-makers. Our results indicate that respondents who saw the field fire opted more frequently for the agroforestry system, but no difference was found in timeliness. A higher experienced climate extreme related damage in the past increases the likelihood of opting for adaptation.
The results could inform policymakers. Demonstrating consequences from climate change for farm productivity at a regional level for adapted and non-adapted production systems could help encouraging adaptations. To foster adaptation towards production systems with a high climate mitigation potential, future research should consider effective information schemes in policy mixes.
| Status of your work | First results |
|---|---|
| Early Career Researcher Award | Yes, the paper is eligible |
