8–9 Sept 2026
Europe/Berlin timezone

BES-SIM 2: Projecting global biodiversity and ecosystem services under positive futures for people and nature

Not scheduled
20m
Talk Transdisciplinarity for biodiversity science and governance

Speaker

Andrés Mármol-Guijarro (Martin Luther Universität Halle-Wittemberg)

Description

BES-SIM 2 is a global, multidisciplinary model intercomparison exercise developing future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem service change. Building on its first iteration, BES-SIM 2 draws on the Nature Futures Framework (NFF)— a set of plausible, positive futures for people and nature — to explore the combined effects of human and climate pressures across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems. It brings together 15 terrestrial and 10 marine modelling teams working at regional and global scales.

The exercise addresses the following research frontiers: (i) advancing model intercomparison as a means to assess future trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services and to test and quantify uncertainties across models; (ii) incorporating multi-scale modelling to link global trends with regional and local dynamics; (iii) integrating social-ecological feedbacks to capture the dynamic interactions between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human systems; and (iv) bringing terrestrial and marine domains together within a comparable modelling framework. Outputs are delivered as Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) in standardised, FAIR-compliant EBV data cubes, enabling transparent cross-model synthesis and reuse.

In this talk, we introduce the BES-SIM 2 framework and present preliminary results from the ongoing modelling effort. Through these advances, BES-SIM 2 will contribute to the upcoming IPBES Second Global Assessment and support international biodiversity strategies, most notably the Kunming-Montréal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) and the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), providing a scientific basis for conservation and sustainability decision-making.

Status Group Postdoctoral Researcher
FOR TALKS: Poster Presentation Option Yes, I’m willing to present as a poster.

Authors

Andrés Mármol-Guijarro (Martin Luther Universität Halle-Wittemberg) Gavin Stark (iDiv/MLU) Magali Weissgerber Rob Alkemade (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) Henrique Pereira (iDiv/MLU)

Co-authors

Felicia O. Akinyemi (Karlstadt University/University of Bern) Peter Alexander (University of Edinburgh) Lluís Brotons (CREAF) Jay G. Burns (University of Edinburgh) Tyler D. Eddy (Memorial University) George C. Hurtt (University of Maryland) Justin A. Johnson (University of Minnesota) Martin Jung (IIASA) Inês S. Martins (University of York) Alexander Popp (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) Dr Andy Purvis (Natural History Museum London) Patrick A. Walkden (Natural History Museum London) Carlo Rondinini (Sapienza University of Rome) Mark Rounsevell (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology / University of Edinburgh) Kazuaki Tsuchiya (NIES-Japan)

Presentation materials

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