Speaker
Description
Rapid climate change is undermining the long-term capacity of protected areas (PAs) to conserve biodiversity, yet exposure metrics alone cannot reveal whether species can realistically reach areas where suitable climates may persist. Here, we develop a climate-informed connectivity framework that integrates climate velocity, PA climatic residence time, PA size, and functional connectivity based on energetics-informed resistance surfaces derived from species distribution models. Using high-resolution climate projections and omnidirectional connectivity modelling across Europe, we identify where climate-tracking movement is more or less feasible under combined climatic and energetic constraints. We show that opportunities for redistribution are substantially more limited and spatially uneven than structural connectivity alone suggests. Small, climate-exposed PAs are especially vulnerable because they provide limited internal climatic buffering and are often embedded in landscapes where movement feasibility is low. By contrast, larger and more climatically stable PAs are more often situated within landscapes that can better support redistribution. Our results show that the effectiveness of PA networks under climate change depends not only on the location of climatic refugia, but also on PA size and the energetic permeability of the surrounding landscape. Our study provides a spatially explicit basis for restoration and conservation planning to maintain the functionality of PA networks under future climate change
| Status Group | Postdoctoral Researcher |
|---|---|
| FOR TALKS: Poster Presentation Option | No, I prefer to present only as a talk. |