8–9 Sept 2026
Europe/Berlin timezone

The global green wave trajectory: concept and observed north-east drift

Not scheduled
20m
Talk Functions

Speaker

Miguel Mahecha (Leipzig University)

Description

Viewed from space, terrestrial vegetation exhibits a seasonal "green wave" driven by solar forcing and modulated by climate variability, ecosystem properties, and land use. This macrophenological dynamic underpins key local biological processes and global biogeochemical cycles. Here, we introduce a trajectory-based framework that quantifies global vegetation seasonality by tracking the spatio-temporal center of mass of terrestrial greenness from satellite observations and Earth system models. The resulting three-dimensional trajectory acts as a compass of macrophenological shifts, integrating changes in ecosystem functioning across space and time. We define viridistice as the moment of maximal hemispheric greenness and equiviridis as the moment of maximal transition speed of greenness between hemispheres. Our analysis reveals a consistent northward displacement of the green wave trajectory, accompanied by a systematic eastward drift. These changes reflect the combined influence of climate change, CO₂ fertilization, afforestation, and land-use change, and are projected to intensify in CMIP6 simulations, indicating a substantial reorganization of terrestrial biosphere dynamics.

For more information see: http://greenwave.earth/

Status Group Senior Scientist
FOR TALKS: Poster Presentation Option Yes, I’m willing to present as a poster.

Author

Miguel Mahecha (Leipzig University)

Co-authors

Ana Bastos (Universität Leipzig) Ms Chaonan Ji (LSCE) Christian Wirth (iDiv, Uni Leipzig) David Montero Loaiza (Leipzig University) Mr Fabian Gans (MPI BGC) Mr Guido Kraemer (Universität Leipzig) Mr Gustau Camps-Valls (Universitat de Valencia) Mr Hannes Feiulhauer (Universität Leipzig) Ms Ida Flik (Universität Leipzig) Johannes Quaas (Universität Leipzig) Mr Martin Reinhardt (Universität Leipzig) Milena Mönks (Universität Leipzig) Mirco Migliavacca (JRC EU) Sebastian Sippel (Universität Leipzig) Mr Sebastian Wieneke (Universität Leipzig) Sophia Walther (MPI BGC) Teja Kattenborn (Universität Freiburg)

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